Announcing the TRACE Framework & MSME Credit Risk Data Pilot

The Credit Research Initiative (CRI) at the National University of Singapore today announced the launch of two significant resources aimed at transforming credit risk assessment for Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs): the TRACE framework whitepaper and a corresponding pilot dataset for Singapore’s Food & Beverage (F&B) industry.
Building on its globally recognized research in forecasting the Probability of Default (PD) for public companies, CRI is now addressing the complex and often opaque world of private MSME credit risk. This new initiative provides financial institutions, researchers, and policymakers with powerful tools to better understand and manage risk in this vital economic sector.
The culmination of this extensive research is the TRACE (An Interpretable, High-Performance MSME Credit Risk Assessment) framework. It offers a scientifically rigorous and practical approach to assessing private MSME credit risk, powered by advanced AI and machine learning. Crucially, the framework is designed to maintain full transparency, with key features including Intelligent Data Integration, ‘Glass Box’ Modelling, and a structure aligned with regulatory expectations.
To demonstrate the framework's capabilities and data coverage, CRI has released a pilot dataset focusing on Singapore’s F&B industry. The dataset presents companies in numerically-labeled groups based on their calculated Probability of Default (PD) range.
Availability and Further EngagementThe full TRACE framework whitepaper and the pilot dataset are now available for public access on the CRI website at: https://nuscri.org/en/private_company/
CRI invites industry partners, financial institutions, and researchers to explore potential collaborations, including the development of custom datasets for other sectors or the application of the TRACE framework to proprietary data. The team also welcomes any questions, comments, or suggestions.

Disclaimer

The Credit Research Initiative ("CRI"), and the National University of Singapore ("NUS") are not recognized as Credit Rating Agencies (CRA) by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), and thus are not regulated under the Securities and Futures Act (SFA) of Singapore. Consequently, the CRI and NUS are not licensed under the Capital Markets Services (CMS) regime, and have no licensing obligations under the CMS. The CRI and NUS are not officially recognized or accredited as credit rating agencies in any other jurisdiction. Users should not use or rely on data available on this website to comply with applicable laws or regulations that prescribe the use of ratings issued by accredited or otherwise recognized credit rating agencies.

The CRI has not been solicited by issuers to produce data appearing on this website, and issuers do not pay CRI any fees to develop the quantitative models that generate the results that appear on this website.

No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software, or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced, or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of National University of Singapore or its affiliates (collectively, NUS). The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. NUS and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees, or agents (collectively NUS Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or availability of the Content. NUS Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an “as is” basis. NUS PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT’S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED, OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall NUS Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs or losses caused by negligence) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages.